I get the impression that the capitalist class is far from unified. It's clear that at least some members calculate that they might be better off with their own personal fiefdoms like Texas or Florida. Also, it's undeniable that there is increasing polarization of society, which is largely driven by the oligarch owned media. Even if the intent isn't to cause civil unrest, it's easy for events to take on a life of their own as this process continues. The continuously declining standard of living is fuelling public anger, and the media tells people that half the country is their enemy who is responsible for this. Both democrat and republican control outlets are actively radicalizing their viewers. Here's an example of what I mean straight from lemmy lemmy.ml/post/21741562/1450035…

The situation the US is headed for is one where a significant portion of the public no longer believes the elections are fair, and increasingly sees violence as an acceptable way to resolve problems. The fundamental reason people accept the system is because they see it as being broadly fair. The social contract is that you go and vote, and if your side loses, well that's cause most people wanted something different, and you're just going to accept that. However, if you believe that the election was stolen then you no longer see the power structures as being legitimate. At that point you see yourself as living under tyranny.

I don't think that a militant mass labor movement is needed for a civil war to start. It's not going to look like the last civil war with two armies fighting each other. It's going to look more like Rwanda, where you'll see mass murder, and ethnic cleansing happening all over the country.

A civil war certainly can happen without a left, and if things continue along the current path, civil war will continue to become more possible. But I think that’s out beyond the next administration.

It’s clear that at least some members calculate that they might be better off with their own personal fiefdoms like Texas or Florida.

Some petit bourgeois do. But I don’t think the haute bourgeoisie are willing to risk losing empire yet. Until they feel that empire is unsalvageable, I don’t think they’d sign on to secession. And I don’t think regional petite bourgeoisie can pull it off on their own under such conditions. I think they’d be quickly dispatched by federal forces if they tried, and I don’t think they’d try without haute bourgeois support. My understanding is that the military is set up so each division consists of people from around the country. They don’t have regional loyalties, except perhaps in the state-based National Guard. So I don’t think they can be brought around to the side of the seceders.

media tells people that half the country is their enemy who is responsible for this

No doubt, but on the “left” there’s no organizing nor funding for civil militancy. It can only rely on state use of force. On the right side, there is some organizing. I think it’s still in a state of patchwork stochastic terrorism, and as-yet no large backing to sew it together and activate it.

Here’s an example of what I mean straight from lemmy lemmy.ml/post/21741562/1450035…

Yes, I saw that. I think it’s some Dem stan yelling at their screen. I don’t see them joining a militia and fighting door-to-door in the streets. Dem stans seem to have no convictions more militant than rallies to restore sanity.

However, if you believe that the election was stolen then you no longer see the power structures as being legitimate. At that point you see yourself as living under tyranny.

Yes, and people live with that in other countries without civil war breaking out, and under even worse material conditions.

ESTRAGON: I can't go on like this.
VLADIMIR: That's what you think.

It’s going to look more like Rwanda, where you’ll see mass murder, and ethnic cleansing happening all over the country.

I can definitely imagine stochastic terrorism ramping up, and the state increasingly having to come in to take it down. If that’s the kind of civil war you mean, then my answer is different. I don’t know much of anything about Rwanda’s situation, but I get the impression that it doesn’t have a strong federal government, and if that’s the case, structurally I think it’s a different situation.

Aside from stochastic regional terror, I can also envision even more naked coups in the near future. Depending om how one plays out, it can sometimes be considered a lightning round civil war.

I generally agree, I don't see the conditions for any serious unrest happening during this election. Most likely there's going to be a lot of moaning from the side that loses, but it's unlikely to translate into any serious unrest. I expect there will be some catalyst down the road that kicks things off such as another banking crisis.

The military is indeed set up to ensure that it's not loyal to any particular state. I think that's why Florida and Texas are manoeuvring to increase the role of National Guard.

I find it's hard to tell what the big capitalists really think in US. Ultimately, they don't really have any loyalty to the state, and their calculation may be that Balkanization would allow them to increase the rate of exploitation. At least some of them are realizing that the empire is dying, and that they may be planning for that. For example, Dalio openly talks about the end of the empire in his Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order book. So, it's not like these people don't understand what's happening.

The two options they have is to either take on China and Russia militarily which would almost certainly lead to a nuclear holocaust, or to accept that the empire is fading, and refocus exploitation on the imperial core. In the latter scenario they'd be fighting each other for the scraps, hence why securing personal fiefdoms may become an appealing prospect.

Not to draw too close of a parallel, but it could be a scenario similar to the fall of USSR where the oligarchs emerged by grabbing any state assets they could get their hands on.

Very much agree that the democrat side of the equation would entirely rely on the state to do the repression, where the right has some nascent organization at grassroots level. Incidentally, if the US does descend into full fascism, it's much more likely to happen under the dems. If there is another event like Jan 6 riots, that could be used as an excuse to suspend a lot of civil liberties. In fact, you see prominent dems already taking the stance that the first amendment is a problem and needs to be done away with. So, it wouldn't be dem stans joining militias, but rather giving open support to a fascist state and legitimizing it.

Also true that people live under tyranny in other places, and that things can get pretty bad before any sort of uprisings happen. I do think that the US is somewhat unique in this regard because of the whole mythology around freedom that's so ingrained in people. It's also a place where there are more guns per capita than anywhere in the world. Again, I don't mean there's going to be some organized uprising or anything, more of sectarian violence all across the country.

Overall, it's pretty hard to predict the shape of events and there are many different ways things could play out. That said, I do expect that the tensions will continue to build, and at some point the building contradictions will have to be resolved. I don't see any path towards material conditions improving under the current system, so I think the trajectory towards collapse is locked in at this point. The key questions is what shape it will take when it does happen.

The first amendment is the source of this division in the first place: it’s allowing Putler and Xitler to sap and impurify our precious bodily fluids. For the sake of democracy, it needs guardrails against foreign autocratic talking points, and the domestic interlopers repeating them need to be suppressed.

/s

I’m not sure if you saw my wall of text this morning. The meat of it:

The reason people are seeing $evil_country bots everywhere is because our own government and our own corporate media tell us they are everywhere, not because they are everywhere. The propaganda is coming from inside the house. They’ve spent the last seven years and who knows how much money trying to convince us of. They’re trying to manufacture our consent to censorship.

They tell us what opinions are $evil_dictator talking points so we know what opinions to dismiss out of hand, and to see the people & organizations that express those opinions as malevolent foreign agents, so we never listen to them again. They’re training us to do some of the censoring for them.