The mystery of the possible Dyson spheres may be solved. First, a quick reminder on what Dyson spheres are:

"In their need for more powerful energy sources, an advanced civilization might harness the entire output of a star. They wrap a star within a sphere to capture every last photon of stellar energy. Such an object would have a strange infrared or radio spectrum. An alien glow that is faint and unique. So astronomers have searched for Dyson spheres in the Milky Way, and have found some interesting candidates."

Next the possible Dyson spheres:

"One major search was known as Project Hephaistos, which used data from Gaia, 2MASS, and WISE to look at five million candidate objects. From this they found seven unusual objects. They appear to be M-type red dwarfs at first glance, but have spectra that don't resemble simple stars. This kind of star-like infrared object is exactly what you'd expect from a Dyson sphere. But of course extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and that's where things get fuzzy."

And how the mystery is solved (probably):

"Almost immediately after the paper was published, other astronomers noted that the seven objects could also be hot Dust-Obscured Galaxies, or hotDOGs. These are quasars, so they appear star-like, but are obscured by such a tremendous amount of dust that they mostly emit in the infrared."

So there you have it. Not Dyson spheres, hotDOGs.

Click through if you want to get the paper with all the details of what spectral bands were analyzed and how they were interpreted.

Those Aren't Dyson Spheres, They're HotDOGs

#astronomy #dysonspheres #gaia #2mass #wise #galaxies

"SLS is still a national disgrace".

The blog post starts with, "Four years ago, unable to find a comprehensive summary of the ongoing abject failure known as the NASA SLS (Space Launch System), I wrote one. If you're unfamiliar with the topic, you should read it first."

Uh, no, don't do that... unless you have a lot of time. This follow-up even still takes a lot of time. If you have a lot of time and are in the mood to feel depressed over NASA mission failures, you've come to the right place.

SLS stands for "Space Launch System", and it's an "ongoing abject failure", according to Casey Handmer.

"By continuing to humor this monstrosity, NASA has squandered its technical integrity and credibility."

"NASA has spent $20b on SLS and related programs in the last four years, so let's tick off updates since my previous blog on this topic. $20b should buy a lot of progress, but if anything, this program is even further from any semblance of functionality than it was back then."

Besides the commentary on the SLS failures, what struck me was the "Litany of other canceled and delayed projects":

"Mars Perseverance, a supposedly cheaper built-to-print replica of the Curiosity Mars rover from 2012 then required extensive re-engineering costing $2.4b, the same as the previous rover."

"Mars Sample Return's budget grew from $1.6b to $11b while the schedule slipped multiple years to the right."

"VERITAS (mission to Venus) indefinitely postponed due to budget constraints."

"HWO/HabEx/Luvoir and the new (bi)decadal survey. JWST, originally budgeted in 1999 for $1b to launch in 2007, ultimately launched in 2021 after spending $10b, so horrendously late and over budget that instead of re-imposing any kind of programmatic discipline or inventing a contract structure that doesn't reward Northrop Grumman for wasting money, NASA instead has decided to delay the next big space telescope (currently termed the Habitable Worlds Observatory) into the 2050s."

"Dragonfly -- a super cool nuclear powered robotic octocopter to explore Titan, was originally budgeted at $850m and is now pushing well beyond flagship status at $3.35b."

"VIPER -- a robotic moon rover at the south pole. Originally conceived as the Resource Prospector rover from NASA Ames, then canceled in 2018 after spending $100m on development, the concept returned as VIPER. Its budget grew from $250m to $450m and most recently to $685m, exceeding a critical cost cap leading to cancellation despite being a supposedly essential part of Project Artemis."

"Psyche -- a mission to a metal asteroid. It missed its launch window due to a software issue discovered during final check out, growing its budget from $1b to $1.2b and pushing VERITAS into limbo."

"NEO Surveyor. In 1998 Congress mandated that NASA map 90% of near Earth objects larger than 1 km -- asteroids capable of destroying our entire civilization. Now, 30 years later, the mission has been pushed back another two years despite an increased budget, now expected to top $1.2b."

"Europa Clipper. Budget grew from $2b in 2013 to $5.2b."

"Ingenuity -- developed for less than $25m, because JPL was spending its own money."

"CASIS -- ISS National Lab. In an effort to defray costs and prolong the life of the station, NASA spent years building CASIS (an independent non-profit) and the ISS National Lab to find private customers."

"Chandra X-ray observatory, already launched and operating in space, is being defunded with 10 years of operational life remaining, because of budgetary pressures."

"Block 1B and the Exploration Upper Stage. Yet another configuration of SLS with a beefier upper stage, but only a marginal increase of launch capacity."

"Artemis space suit provider Collins backs out."

"Artemis space suit provider Axiom Space in trouble."

"I haven't forgotten Gateway and Starliner, they get a full treatment below."

Gateway, also known as Lunar Gateway, is a space station assembled in orbit around the Moon.

"The entire damn lunar gateway only exists because SLS is too anaemic to launch the incredibly overweight Orion anywhere useful, so perhaps we should just drop the whole thing into the Atlantic ocean and be done with it."

"In September 2014, NASA awarded Boeing $4.2b and SpaceX (somewhat grudgingly) $2.6b to develop capsules to transport people to and from the ISS."

"SpaceX's Crew Dragon capsule first flew in 2019 and in 2020 brought astronauts to and from the space station. As of September 2024, it's flown thirteen flights (three private) to the ISS, two other private flights including the highest ever Earth orbit and first private space walk, and carried 54 people in space."

"In contrast, Boeing's Starliner only flew two astronauts to the ISS, after two previous launches with a series of failures and near misses. Despite being a much simpler design than Crew Dragon, Starliner has suffered from:"

[list of stuff]

"Conway's Law explains that product structure mirrors the organizational structure that built it. ..."

Commentary: I have been wondering if there's something in the nature of human bureaucracies that causes them to gradually become moribund over time. It seems like this inflicts not just NASA, not even just the US government, but our society at large. It seems like, infrastructure-wise, things get done more and more slowly and at higher and higher cost, with no discernible explanation. At least in the tech industry there are nimble startups, but they seem to be outliers to the way our society is increasingly operating, and even they have a tendency to get acquired by established incumbents, for whom people have observed "enshittification" is a thing that happens enough to coin a word for it.

SLS is still a national disgrace -- Casey Handmer's blog

#astronomy #space #nasa #sls #boeing #spacex