The truth is, neither deserves credit [for the ceasefire]. Certainly, Biden deserves none. The “plan” he put forth last May was on the table before he dishonestly presented it as an Israeli plan, only to later claim it for himself. In fact, it was neither; it was the only way to negotiate a ceasefire that both sides could be made to accept, and was negotiated for that reason.

Biden preferred month after month of genocide. That his team was part of the discussions wherein Israel finally agreed to what is likely to amount to a brief pause in the genocide akin to what we saw in November 2023 should earn Biden nothing.

Was it Trump then? In comparison to Biden, Trump did do something here. As I’ve described it, “Trump could and did use his leverage over Netanyahu to push him toward the agreement.” But some are now discussing a “Trump effect,” that will see the United States play a different role in Palestine and Israel than it did under Biden. That is a vast overstatement.

Not a Trump effect, a POTUS effect

As Ha’aretz U.S. reporter Ben Samuels put it, “the vast majority of observers have credited what is now known as ‘The Trump Effect’ for the cease-fire.” Samuels himself doesn’t seem to put a lot of stock in it, though, and he’s right not to.

All Trump did was make it clear to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he wanted a ceasefire. He cared neither about Palestinian life nor freedom, nor about Netanyahu’s political concerns. Trump made clear what he wanted, and it was up to Netanyahu to make it work and then address his own political problems as he saw fit.

As is always the case when an Israeli Prime Minister is confronted with a clear demand from an American President (or president-elect, in this case), Netanyahu knew he had to comply. This was not a “Trump effect;” it was a “POTUS effect.” Trump did nothing that Biden could not have done at any time if only he had the will to do it.

Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff demanded Netanyahu meet him, on Witkoff’s schedule. He laid out his list of incentives and consequences for refusal, along with his simple demand: Trump wants to enter office with a ceasefire in effect.

What might have been threatened or offered to Netanyahu to entice him to do as he was told remains undisclosed. Some have conjectured that West Bank annexation is the carrot Trump dangled, but this seems unlikely. Mega-donor Miriam Adelson donated $100 million to Trump’s SuperPAC, and certainly did so with the expectation that annexation would happen within the next four years. Trump isn’t going to play games with that commitment or, more importantly, with Adelson’s ongoing financial support.

The price may not have been all that high, in any case. While Netanyahu and his far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich have been forthright in saying they have no intention of seeing this ceasefire last beyond the first phase, it is equally clear that if Israel goes back to the genocide, U.S. weapons will continue to flow as freely as ever.

The ceasefire was inconvenient for Netanyahu, and, as such, he had no reason to agree to it. Biden could have given him reason to do so many months ago. Biden simply didn’t want to, reflecting just how blatantly he and his Secretary of State Antony Blinken had lied about pursuing one at all. Trump, for his own reasons, wanted a ceasefire as he entered office.

But Trump has no interest in spending the political capital and energy that would be required to see it through all three phases, and never intended to do so. He quickly clarified that point by stating that he did not have much confidence that the ceasefire would last and that it is “not our war.” The message that he expects Israel to restart the onslaught, and is comfortable with that, couldn’t be clearer.