US imperialism, headed by Donald Trump, has launched a military build up in the Caribbean not seen for decades. The deployment of the USS Gerald R Ford strike group, including the largest US aircraft carrier, a nuclear submarine, and over 10,000 combat troops, is a clear warning that Trump and US imperialism mean business. Normally two US war ships are stationed in the Caribbean, now it is at least 10. Under the pretext of wanting to hit the narco-traffickers, over 20 boats have been bombed, killing over 80 occupants, even though most of the drugs smuggled into the US do not originate from or pass through Venezuela.

Now an oil tanker has been seized by the US in an act of imperial piracy. Asked what he would do with the seized tanker, Trump replied, “I guess we will keep it”. Yet it is not just one tanker, apparently destined for Cuba, that the US empire has its eye on. It is access to the vast Venezuelan crude oil reserves, the largest in the world, that Trump and the oil barons who backed him want.

Venezuela has 303 billion barrels of crude oil in reserve, 20% of the world’s total. Furthermore, most US oil refineries are designed to process ‘heavy crude oil,’ which the US only gets from Venezuela, Canada, and Russia. Securing such supplies along with an estimated US$1 trillion gain for US business is in the offing if they can get their hands on it.

Apart from the naval build up, in preparation for further action the military base on Puerto Rico, closed following mass protests in 2004, has been re-opened. Thousands of US troops, amphibious landing craft, tanks, and war planes are being flown into the base.

Puerto Rico, the last remaining US colony that was seized in 1898, has historically been a crucial base and training ground for the US military. It was on the Puerto Rican island of Vieques, where thousands of the indigenous population were driven off and slaughtered, that Napalm, ‘agent orange ‘and other deadly weapons of mass murder were tested before they were used in the Vietnam war.

Militarily, Puerto Rico historically has been strategically important for US imperialism – lying close to Cuba and less than 100 km from Venezuela, the closed military bases have now been reopened to the consternation of many on the island.

Trump’s claim that his motive is targeting narco-traffickers. In the order of narcotics trade, Venezuela is a relatively small player. Regime change for the lucrative black gold, which is the mainstay of the economy of the petrostate of Venezuela, is one of Trump’s real objectives. Geo-political factors are also a factor in Trump’s objective of regime change. He is also warning rival powers, China and Russia, not to challenge US influence in the Americas. Putin is supporting Maduro, and both regimes have trade relations, including oil.

US imperialism has long wanted the overthrow of the Venezuelan government, since the election of Hugo Chavez, in 1998. An attempted military coup to oust Chavez, a radical left populist in 2002, backfired as millions poured onto the streets defeating the coup and restoring Chavez to the Presidency. The mass social explosion which followed drove the radical, well intentioned, Chavez, even further to the left, undertaking partial nationalisations, speaking of “socialism in the 21st century” and, using revenue from oil, introduced sweeping social reforms.

In election after election, Chavez won sweeping victories. A revolutionary movement developed. Popular though Chavez’s reforms and his regime were, as the CWI analysed at the time (Socialism Today – Venezuela at the crossroads; Venezuela: Revolution and counter-revolution – Socialist Party; Socialism Today – Venezuela: the revolution in danger; Venezuela: A New Phase In The Revolution – Socialist Party) the government’s often top down bureaucratic methods, corruption, the absence of democratic workers’ control and management and, fundamentally, a failure to definitively break with capitalism, resulted in the revolution reaching an impasse. The fall in global oil prices had a devastating effect, resulting in stagnation and then economic decline. Chavez died in 2013 and was replaced by Nikolas Maduro.

With the revolutionary process in retreat, US imperialism imposed crippling sanctions, including under President Obama; an economic blockade, that was tightened under Trump 1 and 2, with the objective of strangling the economy and forcing regime change. At the same time, Maduro did not continue the radical steps of Chavez which encroached upon capitalism but moved in the other direction.

Of the 303 billion barrels of oil reserves, Venezuela has only managed to sell four billion barrels due to international sanctions. Venezuela has 161 tons of gold reserves – much of it locked away in the Bank of England as the country’s assets have been frozen by imperialist powers. Shortages due to lack of imports have a devastating effect. These have compounded the crisis which existed due to mismanagement, corruption, lack of investment, and other factors. Venezuela is not only rich in oil. It has 80% of the natural gas reserves in Latin America but only accounts for 18% of that used largely due to lack of infrastructure and corruption.

Hyperinflation and shortages have all resulted in a devastating social collapse. Between 2014 and 2021, the GDP plummeted by 75%. The devastating social situation led to a dramatic fall in support of the regime. Since 2013 over 8 million (out of an estimated population of 28 million) people have fled the country, in one of the largest global refugee and immigrant crises.

Such an impasse in the situation has resulted in big opposition to Maduro’s regime which is more corrupt and authoritarian than which existed under Chavez. The regime has also acted against leftist critics who do not support US imperialism. According to some reports, Maduro has had US$700 million worth of assets seized in the US. However, revulsion of the rich, right wing opposition, and the legacy of the revolutionary process (though it ended in stagnation and decline), means Maduro still maintains a significant base of support. This is likely to be solidified and may be strengthened in response to the threats of Trump and fear of US intervention.

Right-wing opposition in Venezuela

The right-wing opposition in Venezuela, a vicious Thatcherite ruling class, if it comes to power will be ruthless in seeking revenge and enacting repressive anti-working class measures. It offers no solution for the working class and poor. The right wing opposition has a programme of collaboration with imperialism and to further enrich the Venezuelan rich and powerful ruling class.

The stench of hypocrisy of western capitalism in awarding the Nobel peace prize to the leader of the opposition, Maria Corina Machado, has been smelt in Oslo and around the world. The same Machado urged a coup to overthrow the Maduro regime. The same Machado refuses to condemn US bombing of boats in the Caribbean or condemn Trump for his racist attacks on Latinos in the US, including the deporting of Venezuelans to prisons in El Salvador.

Trump clearly is aiming at regime change. The amassing of a military force threatening Venezuela is going to arouse the strong anti-imperialist sentiment that exists throughout Latin America. It will have a massive polarizing effect. It is note-worthy that the right-wing Presidents of Argentina, Ecuador, Panama and Paraguay went to Oslo. Others, like Lula in Brazil or Boric in Chile, did not, reflecting the pressure against US imperialism which exists among the masses of region.

At this stage, US imperialism has not amassed sufficient forces for a full ground invasion, which is unlikely, although not entirely excluded. This would risk triggering a massive movement throughout Latin America and a war with echoes of Vietnam. Trump may also be hoping that amassing a military threat will be sufficient to provoke a split and revolt by a section of the military in Venezuela. This depends on the situation within the Venezuelan military, which is unclear. A land invasion would provoke a big reaction amongst Trump’s support base in the US, which generally opposes further US military interventions. However, bombings, drone attacks, assassinations, kidnappings – including Maduro – are not excluded, indeed more likely. US imperialism has undertaken such interventions in the past in Panama. It kidnapped the ‘strongman’ Noriega. And members of Saddam Hussein’s government in Iraq were kidnapped.

The CWI condemns and opposes all US imperialist intervention in Venezuela or elsewhere. There can be no support given to the reactionary right-wing opposition in Venezuela. It is the challenge facing the Venezuelan working class to find a road to fight imperialist aggression, oppose the capitalist right wing and establish a genuine democratic socialist government of the workers and poor. Such a workers’ government can offer a solution to the catastrophe affecting Venezuelan society, including an appeal to the masses throughout Latin America and the US for support and solidarity.