Yes - the number of people in hospital with flu increased 55% this week. But that’s normal in the upswing of a winter flu season! Equally - yes the peak has yet to come, but again, that is literally what it means to be on the upwards phase of a flu wave. 2/10

This is a year-by-year comparison of hospital admissions with flu using the latest data up to 30 Nov. Yes, this year’s flu season started a few weeks earlier than normal. But otherwise, its pattern looks very similar to 2022/23 and 2024/25. 3/10

So far the biggest increase in admissions this year was last week (69%) but this is normal for the rising phase of a flu season. At a similar point in the wave last year the increase was 61% and 70% the year before that. 4/10

(aside - the annual breathless comparisons of number of admissions this year compared to the same week last year are always pointless in my opinion as the timing of waves shifts year to year and so these comparisons tell you very little) 5/10

The important question is whether this year’s flu season will peak soon (and so we have a ‘normal’ serious flu wave, shifted earlier) or whether it will keep going up and only peak towards end of the year in which case it will be a terrible flu season - i.e. are we in scenario A or scenario B. 6/10

We don't know which scenario it is! the data can't tell us that! This week’s increase in admissions was 23%, down from last week’s 69% so we might be the nearing the peak, which would chime with normal size, shifted early rather than terrible, BUT both are still possible 7/10

So why are NHS leaders and the newspapers sounding the alarm? Well, the NHS never copes well in winter and this year is no exception. Also, I imagine they want to put pressure on doctors not to strike. 8/10

And we do know that this year’s flu strain is less well matched to the vaccine than normal and so more people are likely susceptible to this years’s virus. 9/10

But we see these sorts of headlines every year - it’s the sheer predictability of these headlines and the lack of any real plan to stabilise the NHS over winter that should be the front page story! Not some - in my opinion - highly misleading use of statistics! END OF RANT 10/10

PS1: Yes, get a flu vaccine. Yes, if you’re sick avoid mixing with people and wear a mask (preferably an FFP2 one). Yes, if you are in a crowded indoor space, you might consider wearing a mask to reduce your chance of infection (again, FFP2 one). But this is good practice every winter!