Segmenting The Future Of Computing
I’ve been writing a small bit about the segmentation I see coming in how we currently think of computing. Yes, it’s about Artificial Intelligence, and yes, it’s about money. There’s no question that we’re already seeing price increases due to chip shortages, but I’m thinking that’s just the beginning of what will make Apple’s reputation of shipping too expensive computers, prior to the MacBook Neo, seem like a memory.
There’s no question that the cost associated with Artificial Intelligence is driving this and will continue to do so. The question is how much? Note that in the latest announcements from Google, Microsoft, and Nvidia heralding what’s coming that price tags weren’t revealed. Quite frankly from the way I’m reading the tea leaves scattered among the press releases, most of these companies are skittish because they don’t even know how high the cost curve is going to bend. Or they’re afraid of the sticker shock once they do find the courage to announce them.
The way I see it, the next period of time is going to be one where if you can afford the steeper prices of hardware and AI services, you’ll be able to play on that level. Those that can’t, and may not even need to, will be gradually left behind. Although for many that won’t prove to be that much of a problem given their needs. Initially.
Tell me honestly, what has any AI company promised, prior to this coming age of agents, that most computers can’t already do? Heck, even some of the promises agents can supposedly deliver don’t seem to offer that much more, unless you’re a software developer or in math sciences.
That said, operating systems and software are all being geared up along with consumer hardware to make the expensive side of the equation be the standard.
Already we’re seeing moves away from AI robots doing their work in the various clouds. Companies are prepping local AI models to be installed on devices. Those local models are going to require memory and processing power that’s going to further drive up the hardware costs while possibly reducing the token tax. Gaming hardware is about to become really expensive. Back in the cloud, eventually we’re all going to be paying for search. Probably sooner, rather than later, if you want decent results.
Speaking of taxes. Governments are starting to sniff around with their divining rods, sensing new money reservoirs to be tapped, while watching water resources stretched thin. There’s obviously a thirst. If, when, and where that happens will just add costs to be passed down the line.
Take a look at this quote from Microsoft’s Satya Nadella:
“There are really two stories people can tell about this moment. One is that technology concentrates power, reduces human agency, and leaves to society to absorb the consequences. The other is that we use this next wave to unlock opportunity for developers, scientists, enterprises, and every community. And our job is to make the second story true.”
On the surface it sounds like there’s opportunity for what’s coming to be all inclusive. Clever. Beneath that surface I think Nadella is hinting that unless your computing needs are in fields of endeavor that will require AI to be competitive, you’re at the tail end of that second story and will probably be on the outside looking in while absorbing the consequences. There’s really only one story.
As I mentioned earlier, there are plenty of users who don’t need the latest and greatest hardware and will probably be just fine without. For a time. Unless the big players create operating systems and hardware that segment out some of what will only become compute heavy advances, consumers will eventually find today’s tasks more challenging and less secure as existing hardware slows down and future security updates are released on slower schedules.
Of course that also leaves an opening.
Perhaps companies that offer hardware and services that don’t push whatever current AI envelope is being pushed, might find a willing market. You could argue that Apple’s MacBook Neo, and Dell and others’ recent announcements to counter that somewhat surprising move, might presage this. Without lower entry price points, who knows, a lot of users might just return back to the days of envelopes and snail mail.
That’s probably too extreme a reaction, but we’ve seen similar reactions to technology in the past, some quite recent, once the gee whiz factor has worn off like the letters on cheap keyboards on even expensive computers. Think touch screen displays instead of buttons and dials in cars. Think home automation. Think the Metaverse. Think talking appliances. Think cars and machinery that require maintenance contracts. Think 3D TVs.
Those that love to dabble and explore frontiers and have the money to do so will always seek the next adventure. Go for it. Those who just want to send a birthday greeting, create a holiday card, share a calendar, proofread a document, or search for a local merchant don’t want a hustle or a hassle, or the increased expense that’s obviously coming.
For the moment, the days when the costs of technology decreasing over time have passed.
(Image from Aedrian Salazar on Unsplash)
You can also find more of my writings on a variety of topics on Medium at this link, including in the publications Ellemeno and Rome. I can also be found on social media under my name as above. This site does not use affilate links.
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