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The first September 2023 outlook from the Sea Ice Prediction Network projects once again that #Arctic sea ice is very unlikely to set a new summertime record low this year.

Read the full report at arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook…. As I always try to annoyingly point out, this is why considering internal climate variability is so important.

Bar graph showing the different predictions from the Sea Ice Outlook for September 2023. Last year observed 4.90 million square kilometers. The prediction this year is for 4.54 million square kilometers. Different methods are highlighted for heuristics, statistical and machine learning, mixed methods, and dynamical models.
#arctic
in reply to Zack Labe

Steven Molnar
Steven Molnar
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It's probably just a typical noisy time series, but I'm beginning to wonder if there is a negative feedback producing dreary (ice-preserving) summer Arctic weather when the ice levels decline.
in reply to Zack Labe

Steven Molnar
Steven Molnar
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Thanks. I don't think this year's high ice extent is explained by either of those papers (with high Fram export and ice-friendly weather in Spring), but it's still early in the melting season and also a sample of only one, which is not very statistically robust.
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