Is Russia going nuke?
You know I made a post some months ago being quite concerned about WW3, and I really try to keep my tits calm when it comes to such scenarios since I have seen so many times speculations about all sorts of things and normally nothing radical happens in this world, in any regards.
I haven't posted about the situation in Russia in some time, but I kept an eye on it via AlJazeera, BBC, Euronews but also the awful rt.com out of curiosity. Things slowed down a bit for the past months, but became a lot more tense for the past weeks. There is a serious worry that this can still escalate into a WW3, as unimaginable as it may seem even for those acknowledging that it may happen. Like me.
Russia (Putin kinda leading it) seems to have very few options on the table other than some small nukes to "scare off" the world. And Ukraine is pumped full of weapons and support.
Russia already set the stage to not allow itself to go down in a controlled manner. Declaring some 10% of Ukraine as "theirs", and Ukraine having no interest in backing down, to the contrary taking that territory back, combined with the inability of Russia to fight on the ground and hold onto territories....makes me think that these crazy minds that are in power in Russia, are very close to use bigger weapons like nuclear ones.
Problem is, once they do, it is like trying to extinguish a flaming cooking pan by pouring a liter of water on top of it. Ukraine + the rest supporting them will probably respond in kind. Explosions, the big kind, will happen. We are past the "sanctions" card, we are past the threats that seem to have 0 effect, and now the morons may go on a full-war approach.
I hope I am wrong, again, but seems quite a tense situation.
And as much as people hate Putin, he is not the only one there. He has a lot of supporters and people around him. Whatever they think, they have started a big fight and they won't back away easily, or at all it seems.
Let's see how things will progress....probably we will see 2-3 more months of fighting on the ground, to then who know....a nuke or two!?
Fucking awful bunch of humans this society has created.
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Isaac Kuo
in reply to Tio • • •The short answer to your question is "No".
There is, of course, a possibility. However, the way things have been going and the way Putin has been acting does not point in that direction.
His recent annexation of a large part of Ukraine is an example of the lack of focus in that direction. Yes, he has declared a large part of Ukraine to be Russia ... but what part, precisely? No one knows. That's the most crazy part of the annexation - NO ONE knows the borders of the annexed region. They have not been defined anywhere. At all.
So, how serious can this "line in the sand" be when Putin hasn't even shown where this "line in the sand" even is? Even the laughable time President Trump drew a modified hurricane map with a sharpie marker had more definition.
Of course, the quintessential problem is that there was no place to draw this "line in the sand" where the Ukrainian forces hadn't already crossed. So, there was no way to say, "Don't cross this line or we nuke!" They were already across the line before the thr... show more
The short answer to your question is "No".
There is, of course, a possibility. However, the way things have been going and the way Putin has been acting does not point in that direction.
His recent annexation of a large part of Ukraine is an example of the lack of focus in that direction. Yes, he has declared a large part of Ukraine to be Russia ... but what part, precisely? No one knows. That's the most crazy part of the annexation - NO ONE knows the borders of the annexed region. They have not been defined anywhere. At all.
So, how serious can this "line in the sand" be when Putin hasn't even shown where this "line in the sand" even is? Even the laughable time President Trump drew a modified hurricane map with a sharpie marker had more definition.
Of course, the quintessential problem is that there was no place to draw this "line in the sand" where the Ukrainian forces hadn't already crossed. So, there was no way to say, "Don't cross this line or we nuke!" They were already across the line before the threat!
The talk of nukes seems to only be directed toward Ukraine's western allies ... a desperate ploy to get them to ease off on the military support.
But there's no way to use nukes to threaten the Ukrainians themselves. They've seen Bucha and Izjum. They know that they either push Russia out of Ukraine or they're dead. Whether it's from a nuclear bomb or shells and bullets to the back of the head ... the Ukrainians simply have no choice.
Tio
in reply to Isaac Kuo • •I can't be so sure. No one knows. I worry that Russians have to go beyond the bluff. They can't play any other card in my view. We will see....
Isaac Kuo
in reply to Tio • • •So, really, what has Putin got to lose by just ending the war, including giving up Crimea? It's a bitter pill, but that pill has already been shoved halfway down his throat.
I know there's all this talk of how Putin's regime will collapse and/or break apart if Putin doesn't keep up the appearances of invincible military strength, but he's got powerful internal security institutions ... he'll probably stay on top. His chances that route are pretty good, probably; much better than if he throws around any nukes. And in any case, any illusions of invincible military strength are moot by now.
Rokosun
in reply to Tio • • •